Шум у людських судженнях: природа, джерела та способи зменшення

Abstract

У роботі розглянуто шум у людських судженнях як небажану варіативність рішень у подібних ситуаціях.The paper examines noise in human judgments as an undesirable variability of decisions in similar situations. The approaches of D. Kahneman, O. Sibony and K. Sunstein to understanding the relationship between bias and noise are summarized, examples of this phenomenon in judicial practice, medicine and expert assessment are analyzed. For the practical part of the paper, the results of our own sociological survey are used, which allow us to show the spread of judgments on identically formulated questions. A concise model of the noise structure is proposed, empirical arguments are given in favor of its applied significance, and recommendations are formulated for reducing noise in the assessment and decision-making processes.