Ambition without acceleration: The European Green Deal and environmental SDG performance

Abstract

Achieving environmental Sustainable Development Goals is a central priority of global climate policy, yet whether ambitious regulatory frameworks translate into measurable acceleration of environmental progress remains empirically underexplored due to the lack of causal identification designs. The purpose of this study was to assess the causal impact of the European Green Deal on the trajectories of four environmental SDGs in EU-27 member states relative to non-EU European countries. A quasi-experimental difference-in-differences framework was applied to a balanced panel of 39 European countries over the period 2010-2023, incorporating two-way country and year fixed effects, country-clustered standard errors, and a set of time-varying controls. It was established that during 2020-2023 the European Green Deal did not generate statistically significant improvements in SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production), or SDG 13 (Climate Action) relative to the control group. A marginally significant deterioration was identified for SDG 15 (Life on Land), indicating a relative short-run decline in biodiversity indicators within the EU. Heterogeneity analysis revealed that newer member states and lower-income countries experienced significantly worse climate-action outcomes. The robustness of the findings was confirmed through placebo tests, alternative control-group specifications, and COVID-19 sensitivity analysis. The results can inform climatepolicy practitioners and public administrators seeking to strengthen implementation mechanisms and financing for the biodiversity and land-use components of EU policy.