Modelling the impact of adaptive quarantine restrictions on the dynamics of the epidemic process

Abstract

The relevance of the study arises the need to develop effective strategies for epidemic management under conditions of limited resources. This study aimed to assess the effectiveness of adaptive quarantine restrictions in curbing the spread of COVID-19 and in shaping approaches to managing epidemic processes. To achieve the aim, mathematical modelling was employed to simulate the epidemic dynamics under different scenarios of quarantine measures. The study analysed the impact of the adaptive quarantine introduced in Ukraine, which divided regions into four zones – green, yellow, orange, and red – depending on the epidemiological situation, ranging minimal restrictions to the complete suspension of public institutions. The modelling results demonstrated that adaptive quarantine measures can reduce overall morbidity by 35%-50%, shorten the duration of peak phases by 20%-30%, and decrease the burden on the healthcare system. The territorial segmentation by epidemiological risk level contributed to optimising the socio-economic consequences of quarantine measures, allowing economic activity to be maintained in regions with more favourable epidemiological conditions. The study confirmed that adaptive quarantine is an effective tool for controlling the spread of infection, ensuring a balance between public health needs and the minimisation of economic losses. This approach is recommended for adoption in other countries facing similar challenges, as it enables effective epidemic management under resource constraints while reducing adverse impacts on society and the economy. The findings thus have practical significance for shaping health policy during epidemic periods. Mathematical modelling can serve as a basis for forecasting the development of morbidity and for making prompt decisions on the tightening or relaxation of quarantine restrictions. The use of an adaptive approach makes it possible to account for regional features of the epidemic process, thereby enhancing the flexibility and effectiveness of management. This renders adaptive quarantine a universal instrument capable of reducing both medical and socio-economic losses during epidemics.