Кореляційно-регресійне моделювання впливу базових чинників на рівень інфляції в Україні

Abstract

The correlation between the level of inflation and the money supply as well as the impact of unemployment on its level was researched in this article. Studying economic indicators on the basis of the correlation-regression analysis the authors substantiate the key factors that determine inflationary processes in the country. Certain trends and degree of interdependence between the researching economic characteristics were established. The problem investigated in the article is the clear identification of the influence of key factors that cause inflation in Ukraine, such as the volume of the money supply, the unemployment rate, etc., which makes it possible to identify the basic regulators of the development of the Ukrainian economy. On the basis of the conducted research, it was found that the change in the volume of the money supply has a statistically significant relationship with the level of inflation only in the long term, taking into account trend and nontrend years. It was established that the lack of dependence between the devaluation of the hryvnia and the level of inflation, as well as the lack of a relationship between the level of inflation and producer price indices, is explained by inflation targeting. For further research in this direction, it is important to take into account the factors substantiated in this article, which affect the level of inflation, in particular, and the economy of Ukraine in general. Constant monitoring of changes in fiscal and monetary policy will allow building more accurate correlation-regression models, which will enable the development of an effective inflation control strategy in the country. The results of the study make it possible to form a modern understanding of the inflation's dynamic in the Ukrainian economy and help to develop a productive strategy in anti-inflation policy and to make important decisions in the field of effective state management.