Дослідження достовірності впливу загроз на рівень захищеності комп’ютерної мережі, визначеного за сценарним моделюванням на основі когнітивного підходу

Abstract

The rapid development of computer networks provides modern society with many new opportunities, provides a variety of services in all areas of human activity. Therefore, it is important to consider the importance of reliable and secure opera-tion of computer networks and pay close attention to ensuring the proper level of their security. To determine the relevance of this issue, a study was conducted on the significance of the impact of threats on the level of security of a computer net-work by scenario modeling based on a cognitive approach. The research methodology is based on the use of multiple re-gression analysis, which allows to analyze the relationship between several independent variables (threats) and the target variable (computer network security). To achieve this goal, an analytical expression of the linear correlation that exists between the target variable in rela-tion to such threats as: malware, physical impact on the network by an attacker and unintentional actions, errors of net-work users. The adequacy of the proposed regression model is evaluated using the coefficient of determination, which is a measure of the quality of the regression equation. The values of the standardized regression coefficient and the coefficient of elasticity, which are necessary to compare the impact of each threat separately on the level of security of the computer network, are determined. The obtained values of the coefficients were analyzed and it was concluded that among the studied threats the most reduce the level of security unintentional actions, errors of network users, and the least - the physical impact on the network by an attacker. This result coincides with the fact that it was obtained by conducting a scenario simulation based on a cognitive approach, which, in turn, indicates the reliability of the impact of certain threats on the level of security of the computer network.