Прогнозування водності в місцях розташування основних гідропостів на території басейну Південного Бугу

Abstract

In the master's qualification work the South Bug River basin, including all the factors affecting the formation and operation of the pool, on the geological structure to the climate. Disclosed basin environmental problems and as a result, the concept of water content territories and forecasting as identify patterns and determine the parameters of centuries of river flow variability, including its annual quantities necessary to successfully address complex global three objectives: 1) assessment water content rivers (average their annual water flow or volume flow) and the impact on it of years of climate change and human activities; 2) reliable planning and regulation of water use in different sectors of the economy; 3) preparation of water management balances for the future. A reliable solution formulated problems is possible only if a clear idea of the likely fluctuations in river flow in the future, which should be based on the centuries-old patterns of fluctuations in the past. Thus, the problem of our study is very relevant. Described Excel program and its use to solve this problem. The method of constructing curves provision of further forecasting water content, according to observations on water post within a long period. Made calculations for basic security, namely, for 50%, 75%, 95%. Done forecast water content based on the trend line. Based on studies and received recommendations on the use of forecasts. The annex provides examples. The economic analysis of the improvement of this method for predicting water content.