Intelligent model for reliability control and safety in urban transport systems

Abstract

This paper proposes an intelligent model for controlling the reliability and safety of urban transport systems, integrating fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) with the Bellman-Zadeh decision-making principle. This approach enables the consideration of complex interactions between evaluation criteria and controllable variables, which are characteristic of modern urban environments. To harmonise the modelling outcomes, a membership function to the ideal solution is introduced, allowing for the aggregation of the criteria vector through the intersection of corresponding fuzzy sets. A generalised algorithm is developed for forecasting reliability and safety parameters under the influence of multiple factors, facilitating multi-criteria selection of alternatives in dynamic and uncertain conditions. Special attention is given to the model’s applicability in road safety audits, where both technical and behavioural risk factors must be considered. The proposed framework supports scenario analysis, enabling the simulation of various event developments, the assessment of their implications for transport safety, and the formulation of adaptive response strategies. The integration of FCMs with the Bellman-Zadeh principle formalises the evaluation of safety scenarios, ranks critical factors, and supports decision-making for the optimisation of transport infrastructure. The approach can be adapted to various types of transport systems and utilised to enhance risk management, environmental safety, and strategic planning in urban contexts.