Оцінювання тенденцій фінансового результату збутової діяльності виробничого підприємства

Abstract

The article discusses the main principles of forming the financial result of the sales activity of the business entity. At the same time, the main attention is focused on the evaluation of the trends of changes in the gross profit of the manufacturing enterprise. The main factors influencing its change under martial law are outlined. It has been proven that timely monitoring of the results of sales activity requires the use of economic and mathematical methods and models for estimating gross profit. The means of econometric modeling provide for the selection of the most significant factors of its change, assessment of the density and closeness of the connection, the share of influence of the selected factors on the performance indicator, modeling and further forecasting of the gross profit. The trends of changes in the result of the sales activity of the manufacturing enterprise over the last fifteen years were analyzed. The main problems have been identified and the ways to overcome problematic areas of sales activities have been outlined. It is substantiated that in order to overcome the mentioned troubles, it is necessary to apply the correlation-regression analysis of the gross profit of the manufacturing enterprise. At the same time, the most influential factors of its change were chosen: the volume of sales of the main type of products, the cost of goods and retained earnings (uncovered loss). The result of the conducted research is the construction of multifactorial econometric models of the formation of the gross profit of the manufacturing enterprise. It was established that all these models are adequate according to the coefficient of determination and Fisher's test. Therefore, gross profit forecasting for the next two years was carried out based on them. The forecasting process was carried out on the basis of the assumption of a one percent change in the selected factors and on the basis of the trends existing at the production enterprise. The forecasting results are of a recommendatory nature and can be applied in accordance with changing business conditions. Forecasting changes in factors, using the TREND function, leads to a rapid increase in gross profit. Applying an expert assessment of changes in factors proves a more optimistic prediction of the size of the gross profit of the manufacturing enterprise. The work offers several possible options for changing the result of sales activities in accordance with the dynamics of changes in the selected factors. The relevance of the provided information will allow not only to evaluate the existing trends regarding changes in gross profit, but also to choose the best result depending on the dynamism of the internal and external environment of the production enterprise.