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Визначення ризику порушення нормального режиму енергосистеми при плановому і аварійному виведенні з експлуатації електрообладнання

Ескіз

Файли

2606-Текст статті-2934-1-10-20210609.pdf (325,75 KB)

Дата

2021

Автори



Назва журналу

Номер ISSN

Назва тому

Видавець

Вінницький національний технічний університет

DOI

https://doi.org/10.31649/1997-9266-2021-155-2-54-62

Анотація

The development of competitive relations in the electricity sector, the increase the number of large-scale systemic accidents in the world that have occurred in market economies, improves the importance of the reliability factor for the electric power system (EPS). In this regard, the tasks of taking into account and analyzing all risks, especially the EPS risk operation due to electrical equipment failures, which currently has a significant level of wear and depletion of re-sources, are relevant in power industry of Ukraine. To solve these problems, it is necessary to develop models for as-sessing of technical condition and risk of electrical equipment failures. Equally important are the issues of decision-making on the strategy of operation of defective electrical equipment and emergency risk assessment in the power sys-tem when the equipment is disconnected. The conditions of functioning of modern electric power systems are analyzed. The problem of estimating the opera-tion reliability of the power system based on the definition of risk indicators is formulated. The necessity of complex mod-eling of technical condition and modes of EPS for determination of quantitative indicators of emergency risk of a normal mode of EPS under electric equipment failures is substantiated. A generalized linguistic model is proposed to assess the subjective probability of electrical equipment failure under the presence of a defect. An algorithm of complex modeling of the EPS mode for estimating the emergency risk of the normal mode in case of electrical equipment failures by statistical modeling is proposed. An assessment of the subjective probability of failure of a power transformer actually functioning in the EPS has been performed. A comprehensive modeling of the EPS mode was performed to assess the emergency risk of the normal mode during emergency decommissioning of the power transformer. The advantage of the proposed de-velopment is the ability to determine the probability of failure of electrical equipment due to unsatisfactory technical con-dition based on the use of quality information, to form a priority for decommissioning electrical equipment based on risk indicators in the power system.

Опис

Ключові слова

model , fuzzy logic , electrical equipment , risk assessment , defect , failure

УДК

621.311

Тип документа

Article

Мова

uk_UA

Є частиною

Вісник ВПІ. № 2 : 54-62.

ISSN

1997-9266
1997-9274

Бібліографічний опис

Бардик Є. І. Визначення ризику порушення нормального режиму енергосистеми при плановому і аварійному виведенні з експлуатації електрообладнання [Текст] / Є. І. Бардик, М. П. Болотний, О. Л. Бондаренко // Вісник ВПІ. – 2021. – № 2. – С. 54-62.

URI

http://ir.lib.vntu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/36741

Зібрання

Вісник Вінницького політехнічного інституту. 2021. № 2

Схвалення

Рецензія

Доповнено

Цитується в

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