Синтез математичних моделей процесу відновлення та розвитку електроенергетики України, наближених до реалій воєнного сьогодення

Abstract

Analysis of the section "Energy security" from the "Project of the Recovery Plan of Ukraine" proposed in 2022 by the National Council for the Recovery of Ukraine was carried out, the Project is accessible at: https://www.kmu.gov.ua/storage/app/sites/1/ recoveryrada/ua/restoration-and-development-of-infrastructure.pdf. It was established that the deterministic models of the process of recovery and development of the energy industry of Ukraine, proposed in the “Project of the Recovery Plan of Ukraine" in the "Energy Security" section in the form of diagrams and transformed by us into mathematical structures with the help of a computer program, do not correspond to the realities of the present military situation, and therefore require correction; it is shown that in order to take into account the realities of the military present in the proposed deterministic models, it is necessary to introduce a stochastic component, for the implementation of which it is advisable to use the method of generating pulses of stationary "white noise" with parameters calculated according to estimates of the degree of destruction of energy infrastructure objects using the computer program, proposed in this paper; it is substantiated that the more adequate models of the process of restoration and development of the power industry of Ukraine are autoregression models, the order of which is determined based on the real terms of restoration of energy infrastructure objects, and the Yule-Walker method is used to determine the weighting factors with its implementation in the form of a computer program developed by the authors of this article, but placed in the previous author's work, indicated in the list of used literature for this article under number 7.