Нечіткі моделі родовищ підземних вод та методи оцінювання їхнього стану за умов невизначеності

Abstract

The purpose of the thesis research is improving validity of groundwater deposits state evaluations by developing an aggregated groundwater deposit model and a method for deposit state evaluation under conditions of uncertainty based on interval type-2 fuzzy sets. A groundwater deposit as an observation object has a number of special features creating uncertainty and making any precise estimations during hydrogeological data analysis impossible. For a mathematical description of natural systems of such complexity it does not usually suffice to state a single analytical function, and it is only possible to judge the way they work based on a data set of experimental data, or on an expert’s empirical knowledge. Deposit models are presented with the requirement to adequately reflect the object on every stage of the research, even under a condition of the decision maker being not sufficiently informed about the values of input variables. This causes the importance of developing new mathematical models of groundwater deposits and methods of evaluating their state using interval type-2 fuzzy sets that allow to account for and model the uncertainties present in the input data, and to obtain meaningful results on earlier stages of deposit research.Experimental testing of the proposed models and methods’ functional capabilities in evaluating artesian wells on various stages of hydrogeological research has displayed that the aggregated groundwater deposit fuzzy model allows to receive meaningful results on the final stage, as well as on intermediate stages of geological exploration. In a number of cases the results allow to understand that further operation at the selected site may face certain challenges, and this conclusion may already be reached at the beginning of hydrogeological research. Based on this information, additional research may be conducted and a decision to halt the operations taken, which would allow to spare significant cost on materials and human resources. Based on the proposed models and methods artesian well prospect evaluation software was developed.