Інформаційне протиборство: моделі реалізації та оцінювання інформаційних операцій

Abstract

Life activity of modern large socio-technical systems, which consist of two components: technical and social parts, takes place in a competitive information space. Therefore, the information security of such systems in general, in particular of the state, largely depends on the level of societysecurity. Special destructive informational and psychological operations conducted against the social component of the sociotechnical system pursue the main goal of informational struggle, namely: changing its state by reprogramming the society consciousness (the social part of sociotechnical systems). One of the ways to implement a special information operation is the use of a specially prepared conditional unit of information, such as a meme, which spreads in the information space by the using of influence various channels and performs the function of actually "infecting" the social part of socio-technical systems. The problems that must be solved in order to achieve the goal of destructive informational and psychological influence are considered. The main stages of preparation and implementation of an informational and psychological operation are also given. A structural model of the processes involved in the implementation of information warfare is developed. The article proposes a model for the implementation of a special informational and psychological operation, which is built,based on the Bernoulli formula and allows obtaining a probabilistic assessment of the effective implementation of an informational and psychological operation. In addition, further analysis of the developed model allows getting an assessment of the effectiveness of conducting a special informational and psychological operation. The effectiveness of the conducted special informational and psychological operation is evaluated byusing the probable number of social partelements, which, under the influence changed its initial state, and, as a result, the entire socio-technical system came out of equilibrium. The proposed models are can be used in solving the forecasting the risks problems of conducting special informational and psychological operations and, accordingly, building a system for counteracting destructive informational and psychological influences.