Математичні моделі процесу відновлення джерел відновлювальної енергетики України, наближені до реалій воєнного сьогодення

Abstract

The analysis of the "Energy Security" section from the "Ukraine Recovery Plan" proposed in 2022 by the National Recovery Council of Ukraine, accessible at the provided electronic coordinates, continues with a focus on the recovery and development of renewable energy sources (RES), the Project is accessible at: https://www.kmu.gov.ua/storage/app/sites/1/recoveryrada/ua/restoration-and-development-of-infrastructure.pdf. It was found that the tabular models for the processes of recovery and development of RES in Ukraine, specifically for hydroelectric power stations (HPS), nuclear power plants (NPPs), and solar power plants (SPPs), proposed in the "Ukraine Recovery Plan" within the "Energy Security" section and transformed by us into deterministic mathematical models using computer software, are only applicable for forecasting in the case of wind power stations (WPS) and bioenergy stations (BioPS). In contrast, RES classes such as HPS, NPPs, and SPPs, do not correspond to the realities of today's warfare and the first post-war years. It is suggested to enhance the deterministic models of RES classes HPS, NPPs, and SPPs with stochastic components using the technique of generating impulses of stationary white noise with parameters calculated based on the estimates of the degree of destruction of RES facilities in Ukraine for HPS, NPPs, and SPPs classes. It is reasoned that adequate models for the process of recovery and development of RES facilities in Ukraine for HPS, NPPs, and SPPs are second-order autoregressive models, for which the YuleWalker method is used to determine the weighting coefficients, implemented as a computer program developed by the authors of this article, but located in the author's work listed in the bibliography of this article under number 6. It is proven that the mathematical models for the processes of limiting electricity generation by SPPs, WPS, and BioPS, graphically presented in the "Ukraine Recovery Plan" in the "Energy Security" section under conditions of today's warfare and the first post-war years, lack an objective basis.