Моделювання системою управління ризиками інноваційного проекту

Abstract

The statistical data of capital investment development by spheres of economic activity, distribution of capital investments by sources of financing for 2020 are analyzed. The technique of risk assessment of the innovative project taking into account quantitative and qualitative factors of influence for acceptance of the considered administrative decision is developed. The classification of risk factors influencing the investment phase on the size of the innovation project is developed. Risk management modeling is based on the use of fuzzy logic theory. The technique of fuzzy inference helps to calculate the predicted indicator in the form of a fuzzy set using the expression system "IF - THAT", which combines fuzzy terms of output and input variables using operations AND and OR, adopted in fuzzy set theory, and correspond to operations min and max. Linguistic statements, presented in tabular form, will correspond to the developed system of fuzzy logical equations, which characterizes the surface of the variables for the corresponding terms. The constructed membership functions will be used in modeling the intellectual support of management decision-making to choose the best option for an innovative project. To move from the resulting fuzzy set to a quantitative estimate, it is necessary to perform a defasification procedure, which means the conversion of fuzzy information into a clear form.