Енергетична безпека України в умовах воєнної загрози: аналіз критичної інфраструктури, оцінка втрат і подолання вразливостей через децентралізацію і кібербезпеку

Abstract

The full-scale armed aggression against Ukraine showed a critical level of vulnerability of the national energy infrastructure, which historically developed as a centralized system with large generating and processing nodes. The study found that the vulnerability of the energy system is shaped by a combination of factors: excessive centralization of electricity production, dependence on several oil refineries, linear network configuration, and historical dependence on outdated technological standards the Soviet period. The study includes a comprehensive analysis of the international regulatory framework, in particular the EU Regulations: Cybersecurity Act (EU) 2019/881, which sets standards for the certification of products and services; Cyber Resilience Act (EU) 2024/2847, which introduces horizontal cybersecurity requirements for products with digital elements and requires the implementation of the \"security by design\" principle; and AI Act (EU) 2024/1689, which establishes a regulatory regime for artificial intelligence systems, including requirements for transparency, documentation and human control. These regulations form the basis for harmonizing Ukrainian legislation in the field of energy security. The study identified three main areas for increasing the resilience of the energy system: (1) decentralization of generation and development of local energy systems based on microgrids and renewable energy sources; (2) strengthening the physical protection of critical facilities through engineering shelter, redundancy and spatial dispersion; (3) building integrated cyber defense based on specialized industry Security Operation Centers, network segmentation, multi-factor authentication, and AI-based anomaly detection. The article includes recommendations for establishing a national energy cybersecurity center, developing technical standards harmonized with the EU, introducing mandatory reporting of cyber incidents, developing human resources, and attracting international financing (including through \"Green bonds\" for renewable energy projects). Practical examples of successful implementation in Estonia, Lithuania, and Poland are considered, which were able to invest in decentralized energy while adhering to European standards. The proposed approaches can be applied in planning the reconstruction of energy facilities, forming regional resilience strategies and preparing regulatory documents regulating the security of critical infrastructure. The scientific novelty lies in the combination of structural, spatial, cybernetic analysis taking into account the requirements of international EU regulations, which made it possible to form a holistic vision of the vulnerability of the energy system during war and the ways of its transformation in response to modern challenges. The conclusions are of practical importance for state authorities, operators of the fuel and energy complex, analytical centers and international partners who develop programs for the restoration and protection of critical energy infrastructure in the conditions of a prolonged military threat and European integration of Ukraine.