Інформаційна система діагностики та прогнозування ймовірності банкрутства вітчизняних підприємств

Abstract

The article addresses the relevant problem of diagnosing the financial condition of enterprises and forecasting the probability of bankruptcy under conditions of an unstable economic environment and increasing business risks. The necessity of transitioning from traditional retrospective analysis of financial statements to dynamic forecasting of integral indicators of financial stability is substantiated. The aim of the study is to enhance the functionality of a web application for diagnosing the financial condition of enterprises by integrating a short-term forecasting method of bankruptcy probability based on the integrated indicator of the Tereshchenko model. The study employs the Tereshchenko integrated model, which is based on a system of financial ratios of liquidity, profitability, and asset turnover, enabling a generalized assessment of an enterprise’s financial condition. To improve the analytical value of the results, the application of the exponential smoothing method, in particular the Holt model, is proposed, which allows accounting for both the level and trend components of the time series of the integrated indicator. This approach enables the formation of short-term forecasts of financial stability even under conditions of limited statistical data. An algorithmic model of the diagnosis and forecasting process is proposed, along with UML diagrams describing the system architecture and its operational logic. The practical implementation is realized as a web application using server-side data processing in Python. Experimental testing based on real financial data confirmed the effectiveness of the proposed approach and demonstrated the possibility of improving the accuracy of financial condition assessment through consideration of the dynamics of the integrated indicator. The obtained results confirm the feasibility of using the proposed method to support managerial decision-making aimed at preventing bankruptcy.