Аналіз впливу характеру та масштабу військових руйнувань на стан головних функціональних зон міст сходу України

Abstract

Prolonged hostilities in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions have led to widespread destruction of residential, industrial, and social infrastructure. Analysis of the nature and extent of the destruction reveals structural imbalances that have arisen in the planning and organization of these territories. Research indicates that a large-scale “gray zone” is forming in eastern Ukraine — an area of deep socio-economic and spatial crisis, stretching up to 100 km wide. This size is comparable to the width of interregional zones of attraction at the regional (provincial) level, which is approximately 50–70 km. The tasks, scenarios, and trends for the restoration of destroyed cities will be determined by available resources, existing constraints, and d functional zoning of territories. It has been determined that one of the significant general trends will be the inevitable reduction of the urban development base. Depending on the reconstruction scenario and socio-economic conditions, the population is projected to decline by 30–50%, which will radically change both the structure of demand and the logic of future urban development. An important resource for the development of post-war cities will be industrial sites of enterprises that cannot be restored due to complete destruction or loss of economic viability. These territories can be used for new functions, in particular: the location of production bases for the construction industry, the creation of areas for solar power plants, and the formation of large transport and logistics hubs. It is reasonable to assume that the economic feasibility of changing the functional purpose of large-scale destruction sites is determined by their virtually zero market value at the time of reconstruction, as well as the need for preliminary cleaning of the territories destruction and pollution. This opens up the possibility of redeveloping large industrial areas in line with the city's current needs, taking into account strategies for sustainable development, energy independence, and the formation of a new economic base for the region. A model for the formation of a plan for the functional use of territories is considered, which should be based on the principles of reconstructive development, prioritization of safety, rational use of resources, and adaptability to new socio-economic conditions. In conditions of reduced urban development potential—industrial, demographic, economic—scenarios of complete or partial restoration of the city are possible. They envisage both a return to pre-war population levels and the formation of a new, smaller-scale urban environment. It is proposed to use scenario planning, which allows for the assessment of different development trajectories depending on the level of destruction, resources, and community needs. It has been determined that engineering and transport infrastructure, which provides the basis for any further development, should be a priority. The task of renewing functional areas is a key strategic prerequisite for the comprehensive post-war reconstruction of cities in eastern Ukraine, without which other recovery measures will be ineffective. A flawed model of reconstruction in eastern Ukraine could lead to systemic crises, ranging environmental and man-made to economic and social. The greatest threats are the reproduction of outdated planning structures, ignoring demographic changes, incorrect zoning, underestimating environmental risks, and the lack of a strategic vision for the future.