Прогнозування площі ріллі регіону на основі методів екстраполяції тенденції

Abstract

The article is devoted to the forecasting in management system. The chosen equations based on the experience and graphs optimally describes the studied process (phenomenon, object); the equation is realized on the PC using the appropriate software; the equation is estimated for theoretical (logical) and statistical (matching the value of the statistical characteristics of set limits) adequacy; equation that best describes the study process is selected; some alternative projections are built. The results of forecasting implemented by various methods: based on the statistical characteristics of the time series - average absolute increase, average growth rate, calculated by the primary ( reporting ) values of the dynamic range; based on the time trend; and, finally, on the basis of the above statistical characteristics, but calculated for the aligned data of time trend equations. The information is generated on base of arable land for the period of at least 5-7 years.