Прогностична валідність двомодельної системи конкурсного відбору студентів економічного напрямку

Abstract

One of the urgent tasks facing higher education institutions (HEIs) is to build and implement the most optimal model of competitive selection of applicants. For this purpose, it is necessary to build such a rating list, in which the first places will be given to those entrants who are able to study better in the given specialty. The article conducts an analytical study of statistical relations between the components of competitive selection in 2018 and the average performance of first-year students in the field of knowledge 07 "Management and Administration" of a particular institution of higher education. It is noted that in 2018, in the tested HEI, within one field of knowledge, for the first time applied two different, according to the list of subjects of external independent evaluation (EIE), methods of calculating the competitive score of applicants (КБ). The use of such a two-model system had a positive effect on increasing the number of students in 2018 and 2019. The calculation of correlation coefficients showed that the two-model system of competitive selection of applicants has a fairly high level of prognostic validity (R> 0.5). However, the competitive score calculated by the second method correlates much worse with the average learning outcomes of first-year students, compared to the first model (R = 0.154). With the help of variation of weight coefficients of EIE disciplines, the most optimal alternative model of calculation of the competitive score of the entrant for the II method is defined and offered. In this model, the EIE in Ukrainian language and literature is used as a profile subject with the highest weighting factor. The analysis of the components of the competitive selection of students in this field of knowledge showed that the results of external examinations in the Ukrainian language and literature are a strong predictor of the success of freshmen in economics (R = 0.619). Instead, the EIE in the history of Ukraine correlates the worst with their assessments, compared to other subjects (R = 0.364).