Імітаційне моделювання економічної ефективності адаптивної системи планування перевезень в умовах варіативного дорожнього трафіку

Abstract

The paper presents a simulation modeling method for the quantitative assessment of the economic efficiency of adaptive transportation planning systems under stochastic road traffic conditions. The proposed approach integrates a dynamic routing model with a detailed calculation of operational costs, taking into account vehicle fleet heterogeneity and the time dependence of resource costs. The developed methodology enables scenario analysis of financial indicators (labor costs, depreciation, fuel) prior to the physical implementation of the system. Experimental results confirmed that for intra-city logistics, the application of adaptive planning reduces costs by 53–71% during peak hours, whereas for long-haul transportation, the effect is 4–7%, justifying the feasibility of a differentiated approach to traffic flow management.