Ukraine – Russia: Fuzzy Cognitive Modeling of an Asymmetrical Conflict

Abstract

Using the example of the modern military conflict between the Russian Federation and Ukraine, the article reveals the essence of the concept of \"asymmetric conflict\" as an ideal type, which allows building a network of concepts for the purpose of further studying the phenomenon of hostilities, as well as building forecasts of the development of the military-political situation. The conceptual provisions of the organization of asymmetric countermeasures against the aggression of a \"more powerful\" state in military terms by the \"victim state\" regarding the protection of its fundamental vital national interests are substantiated. The specific focus is the application of mathematical modeling in the framework of the military confrontation between the Russian Federation and Ukraine. The possibilities of introducing the principles of mathematical modeling into the methodology of political science are analyzed and outlined. The article puts forward a hypothesis regarding which the range of application of fuzzy models and methods is quite suitable for the subject of the proposed study, given that the unpredictability of the result should be attributed to the peculiarities of asymmetric conflicts in the event of a clear discrepancy in the power capabilities of the opposing sides (\"indirect\" tactics, non-standard military actions applied by the weak side, as well as the inability of the strong side to defend its positions and finally suppress the weaker opponent). On the basis of expert evaluations, using the example of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the use of a fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) is shown in order to model the causal relationships that are identified between the concepts in the conflict model. Taking into account the potential capabilities of the warring parties, the level of the possibility of a nuclear threat the Russian Federation wastheoretically predicted and the ranking of factors that could affect Ukraine`s victory in the military conflict was carried out.