Fuzzy Cognitive Maps in Reliability Modeling

Abstract

The fuzzy cognitive map is considered as a tool for the ranking of factors affecting reliability. The rank of a factor is defined as an equivalent of the Birnbaum importance index in the classical reliability theory. Models and algorithms are proposed for calculation of the importance indexes of single factors and their joint effects on the reliability. The method is exemplified by the reliability and safety of an automobile in the “driver-automobile-road” system subject to the driver’s qualification, traffic situation, unit costs of operation, operating conditions, maintenance scheduling, quality of maintenance and repair, quality of automobile design, quality of operational materials and spare parts, as well as storage conditions. The advantages of the method include 1) use of available expert information with no collection and processing statistical data and 2) capability to take into account any quantitative and qualitative factors associated with people, technology, software, quality of service, operating conditions, etc.