Управління регуляторним ризиком та фінансова стійкість підприємств відновлюваної енергетики: аналіз впливу заборгованості за «зеленим» тарифом

Abstract

В статті досліджено сутність та прояви регуляторного ризику в секторі відновлюваної енергетики (ВДЕ)

This paper examines the nature and manifestations of regulatory risk in the renewable energy (RES) sector of Ukraine, driven by the key factor of systemic non-payments under the "green" tariff. The dynamics of accumulation and partial repayment of debt by the SE "Guaranteed Buyer" to RES producers during 2022–2025 are analyzed. Based on the analysis of payment level data, a direct link between the payment situation and the financial stability of the industry's enterprises is identified. It is proven that chronic debt leads to working capital shortages, poor liquidity, the inability to service loans, and a complete halt to investments in new projects. It is substantiated that although current payments stabilized in 2025, the accumulated debt (especially for 2022 and 2024) remains a critical threat to the operational activity and investment attractiveness of the sector. Priority state risk management measures are proposed, aimed at restructuring and fully repaying the old debt to ensure energy security and restore investor confidence.